⚡ The 4 Master Signals
Check these four signals every morning before any trade decision.
DXY — US Dollar Index
101.43
-0.18% ↓
Master signal for all commodities. DXY falling = tailwind for Gold, Oil & EM.
VIX — Fear Index
18.9
Caution ⚠️
<15 calm. 15–20 caution. >25 reduce size. >35 crisis.
10Y Treasury Yield
0.45%
Check FRED: DGS10
Rising = tight money → pressure on Gold & equities.
2s10s Spread
+0.08% (Normal)
Recession predictor
Inverted = recession risk. Re-steepening from inversion → Recovery starts.
🧭 Current Market Regime
🟡 STAGFLATION
VIX: 18.9
| 10Y: 0.45%
| DXY: 101.43
| 2s10s: +0.08% (Normal)
📦 Commodity Snapshot
Role
Safe haven + Industrial
Dual role: safe haven + industrial. G:S above 80x = silver cheap vs gold.
📊 TradingView Chart →
🔗 Intermarket Relationships
If This Happens Gold Crude Oil Silver Copper DXY rises strongly Headwind ↓ Headwind ↓ Headwind ↓ Pressure ↓ Real yields rise Strong sell ↓↓ Neutral Headwind ↓ Neutral VIX spikes >30 Rally ↑ (safe haven) Falls ↓ (demand fear) Mixed Falls ↓ China PMI >52 Neutral Rally ↑ Rally ↑ Strong ↑↑ OPEC cuts 1mb/d Neutral Spike ↑↑ Neutral Neutral Fed cuts rates Very Bullish ↑↑ Positive ↑ Strong ↑↑ Rally ↑ US CPI surprises high Mixed (rate fear) Positive ↑ Mixed Neutral Geopolitical crisis Spike ↑↑ (temp.) Spike ↑↑ (temp.) Rally ↑ Falls ↓
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD) — Live: $4,087 +1.41%
📊 5 Key Drivers
Rank Driver Direction for Gold How to Track
1 Real Interest Rates (TIPS) Rising = Headwind ↓ FRED: DFII10 2 US Dollar (DXY) DXY 101.43 — Tailwind ↑ DXY weekly chart 3 Inflation Expectations Neutral (2–3%) FRED: T5YIFR, T10YIE 4 Geopolitical Risk Support ↑ (temporary) News flow — always use trailing stop 5 Central Bank Buying Record pace since 2022 ↑↑ World Gold Council monthly
📐 Core Formula: Real Yield = 10Y − Inflation Expectation
Real yields FALLING → Gold RISES | Real yields RISING → Gold FALLS
📌 2020: QE drove real yields to −1% → Gold surged $1,500→$2,075 (+38%)Lesson: Driver 1 (real yields) ALWAYS beats Driver 3 (inflation). Never buy gold on CPI prints alone.
🔄 Gold in the 4 Market Regimes
Regime Gold Bias Why Trade Approach
🟢 Goldilocks Neutral / Slight Bearish Real yields rising; equities outperform Underweight. No strong position. 🟡 Stagflation Mixed ⚠️ Inflation supports but rate hikes headwind Small entries on deep pullbacks only 🔴 Recession Bullish ↑ Real yields fall as Fed cuts; safe haven bid Core long. Buy dips. Trail stop. ⚡ Crisis Very Bullish ↑↑ Ultimate safe haven; CB liquidity rush Strong long. Options for asymmetric upside.
✅ 6-Step Gold Entry Framework
1
Are real yields (TIPS) falling? AND is DXY in a weekly downtrend? Both must align.
2
Identify the regime. Recession or Crisis = core long. Goldilocks = avoid. Stagflation = small size.
3
Clean technical setup? Close above resistance, or pullback to 50-day EMA. Confirm on two timeframes.
4
Enter on daily close. Never chase a mid-session spike.
5
Stop loss below the most recent structural swing low. Typical: 1.5–3% below entry.
6
Target at prior resistance. Minimum R:R = 2:1. If math doesn't work → skip.
🎯 Key Technical Levels
Level Significance Watch For
$3,500+ 2024–25 Extension Zone Take profits, trail stop $3,000 Major psychological level Key support on pullback $2,500 2024 early ATH Deeper pullback support $2,070–2,080 2020 COVID high → now support Strong support zone $1,920 2011 ATH — decades of resistance Long-term floor
📋 Gold Fundamental Tracker — What to Watch Daily & Weekly
These are the data points that move gold. Check them on schedule to stay ahead of the market.
🏦 Central Bank Actions Event-driven
Fed Rate Decision (FOMC)
8× per year
Rate cut = Very Bullish ↑↑
ECB Rate Decision
6× per year
Easing = Bullish ↑
BOJ Policy Meeting
8× per year
Yield curve control shift = ↑↑
RBI Policy (India gold demand)
6× per year
Rate cut = demand ↑
PBOC Gold Reserves
Monthly disclosure
Buying = structural floor ↑
Fed Minutes / Dot Plot
8× per year
Dovish surprise = ↑
📊 Real Yields & Inflation Daily / Weekly
TIPS 10Y Real Yield (DFII10)
FRED — daily
Falling = Bullish ↑↑ (Driver #1)
10Y Treasury Yield (DGS10)
FRED — daily
Direction matters > level
US CPI (headline + core)
Monthly (BLS)
High CPI but yields flat = ↑
PCE Price Index
Monthly (BEA)
Fed's preferred measure
5Y5Y Breakeven (T5YIFR)
FRED — daily
Rising = inflation fear = mixed
University of Michigan Inflation Exp.
Monthly
Consumer expectations rising = ↑
💵 US Dollar & FX Daily
DXY (Dollar Index)
TradingView — daily
Falling = Tailwind ↑ (Driver #2)
EUR/USD
FX — daily
EUR rising = DXY falling = gold ↑
USD/JPY
FX — daily
Yen strengthening = risk-off = gold ↑
USD/CNY
FX — daily
Yuan devaluation = China gold buying ↑
USD/INR
FX — daily
Weak INR = higher domestic gold price
🌍 Geopolitical & Country Decisions Event-driven
US Sanctions (Russia/Iran/China)
News
Sanctions = de-dollarization = ↑↑
Middle East Tensions
News
War premium = temporary spike ↑
China-Taiwan Tensions
News
Risk-off bid = ↑↑
BRICS De-dollarization Moves
Summit events
Alternative reserve = structural ↑
US Debt Ceiling / Shutdown
Congress
US credit risk = safe haven ↑
Trade War / Tariffs
News
Uncertainty = ↑ (but DXY matters more)
📦 Physical Demand & Supply Weekly / Monthly
Gold ETF Holdings (GLD/IAU tonnes)
World Gold Council
Inflows = bullish ↑
COMEX Gold Inventories
CME — daily
Drawdown = physical demand ↑
Shanghai Gold Premium/Discount
SGE — daily
Premium = China demand ↑
India Gold Imports
Monthly (govt)
Festival season = demand ↑
Central Bank Net Purchases
WGC quarterly
Record buying since 2022 = floor ↑
Mine Production (global)
WGC quarterly
Supply constrained = ↑
Recycled Gold Supply
WGC quarterly
High recycling = price ceiling
📈 Positioning & Sentiment Weekly
CFTC COT Report (Gold Futures)
Fri 3:30 PM EST
Net long extreme = caution ⚠️
Gold ETF Fund Flows
Daily (Bloomberg)
Consistent inflows = ↑
Gold:Silver Ratio
Daily
Current: 68.7x — above 80 = silver cheap
Gold vs S&P 500 Ratio
Daily
Rising = risk-off regime
Gold Miners (GDX) vs Gold
Daily
GDX leading = bullish confirmation
📊 Gold — TradingView Chart
🛢️ WTI Crude Oil — Live: $69.26 -3.70% | Brent: $72.63
📊 5 Key Drivers
Rank Driver Direction for Oil Data Source
1 OPEC+ Production Policy Cuts Active → Bullish ↑ OPEC MOMR (~10th of month) 2 US Shale Output Stable → Neutral Baker Hughes Rig Count (Fri 1PM EST) 3 China Demand Caixin PMI Watch → Headwind risk Caixin Mfg PMI (1st of month) 4 US Dollar (DXY) DXY 101.43 — Tailwind ↑ DXY weekly chart 5 Geopolitical Risk Premium ↑ (temporary) News — always use trailing stop
📅 EIA Inventory Trading Setup — Every Wednesday 10:30 AM EST
Scenario Signal Trade Setup
Crude Draw >3 million barrels Bullish Buy breakout above pre-report 15-min high Crude Build >3 million barrels Bearish Sell breakdown below pre-report low Within expected range (±2M) Neutral Fade the initial spike/drop Gasoline draw + crude draw Very Bullish Strong momentum buy with wide stop SPR release announced Bearish override Ignore inventory draw; sell
🔄 Crude Oil in the 4 Regimes
Regime Oil Bias Why Approach
🟢 Goldilocks Neutral / Modest + Growth supports demand; supply balanced Range trade: buy support, sell resistance 🟡 Stagflation BULLISH — Best Regime ↑↑ Hot economy + constrained supply Max overweight; long XLE energy stocks 🔴 Recession Bearish ↓ Demand destruction as economy slows Underweight; short on bounces ⚡ Supply Shock Spike then Reversal ⚠️ Supply disruption premium fades eventually Trail stop aggressively; NEVER chase
🎯 Key WTI Price Levels
Level Significance Action
$100+ Demand destruction zone Reduce longs; watch for reversal $85–90 OPEC tends to ease cuts here Take profits; trail stop tightly $65–70 OPEC defense zone Build long positions $45–55 US Shale breakeven — structural floor Strong buy zone; shale shuts in
📋 Crude Oil Fundamental Tracker — What to Watch Daily & Weekly
Oil is driven by supply/demand balance, OPEC decisions, and inventory data. Track these on schedule.
📦 Inventory & Storage Weekly
EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Wed 10:30 AM EST
Draw = Bullish ↑, Build = Bearish ↓
EIA Gasoline Inventories
Wed 10:30 AM EST
Draw = demand strong ↑
EIA Distillate Inventories
Wed 10:30 AM EST
Draw = industrial demand ↑
API Weekly Crude Stock
Tue 4:30 PM EST
API preview — often moves overnight
Cushing Oklahoma Hub Stocks
EIA — weekly
Low Cushing = WTI contango collapse ↑
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
EIA — monthly
SPR release = bearish override
Floating Storage (tankers)
Vortexa/Kpler
Rising = oversupply signal ↓
⛽ Supply & Production Weekly / Monthly
OPEC+ Production Quotas
OPEC MOMR (~10th)
Cuts = Bullish ↑↑ (Driver #1)
OPEC+ Compliance Rate
OPEC MOMR
High compliance = effective cuts ↑
US Crude Oil Production
EIA weekly
Rising = supply pressure ↓
Baker Hughes US Rig Count
Fri 1 PM EST
Rising rigs = future supply ↑ → bearish
Russia Seaborne Exports
Kpler/tanker trackers
Sanctions effectiveness check
Iran/Venezuela Output
Secondary sources
Sanctions relief = supply ↑ → bearish
Canadian Oil Sands Output
Monthly
TMX pipeline expansion = supply ↑
📈 Demand Indicators Monthly
China Crude Imports
China Customs (monthly)
Rising = global demand ↑↑
India Crude Imports
PPAC (monthly)
Rising = demand growth ↑
Caixin China Mfg PMI
1st of month
>52 = strong demand ↑
US Gasoline Demand (EIA)
Weekly
Summer driving season peak = ↑
Global Refinery Utilization
IEA monthly
High runs = strong demand ↑
Jet Fuel Demand (IATA)
Monthly
Air travel recovery = ↑
EV Adoption Rate
Quarterly reports
Long-term demand destruction risk ↓
🏦 Central Bank & Macro Event-driven
Fed Rate Decision
8× per year
Rate cut = weaker DXY = oil ↑
US GDP Growth
Quarterly (BEA)
Strong growth = demand ↑
US Jobs Report (NFP)
1st Fri of month
Strong jobs = demand ↑ but Fed hawkish
China Stimulus Announcements
PBOC/State Council
Stimulus = demand ↑↑
Saudi Aramco OSP Changes
Monthly
Price hike = confident demand outlook
🌍 Geopolitical & Country Decisions Event-driven
Middle East Tensions (Strait of Hormuz)
News
Shipping disruption = spike ↑↑
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
News
Sanctions/supply disruption = ↑
US Sanctions (Iran/Venezuela/Russia)
News
New sanctions = supply cut = ↑
Libya Production Disruptions
News
Frequent shutdowns = ↑ temporary
Nigeria/MENA Political Instability
News
Supply risk premium ↑
US-China Trade Relations
News
Trade war = demand fear ↓
OPEC+ Emergency Meetings
News
Surprise cuts = sharp ↑↑
📊 Positioning & Technicals Weekly
CFTC COT Report (WTI Futures)
Fri 3:30 PM EST
Net long extreme = reversal risk ⚠️
WTI-Brent Spread
Daily
Spread >$5 = US supply glut signal
Crude Oil Volatility (OVX)
Daily
OVX spike = trade smaller ⚠️
Contango vs Backwardation
Daily (futures curve)
Backwardation = bullish ↑
Crack Spread (3-2-1)
Daily
Widening = refiner demand ↑
Energy ETF Flows (XLE/USO)
Weekly
Inflows = bullish sentiment ↑
📊 Crude Oil — TradingView Charts
Key intermarket framework:
DXY ↑ → Commodities ↓ (inverse) |
Real Yields ↑ → Gold ↓ (FRED: DFII10) |
China PMI ↑ → Copper & Oil ↑ |
VIX ↑ → Gold ↑, Oil ↓ |
RS > 0 = outperforming Gold over that period.
🏆 Top 10 — Strongest RS vs Gold (55d)
Rank Ticker Category Exch Signal RS(55) RS(22) 1M 3M RSI >SMA50 >SMA200 1 Cocoa Agriculture ICE Buy +85.68 +34.88 +22.50 +60.60 89.70 Y Y 2 Natural Gas Energy NYMEX Buy +39.88 +24.75 +13.30 +13.42 52.60 Y N 3 Copper Industrial Metals COMEX Buy +24.86 +7.12 -2.71 +13.77 46.80 N Y 4 Cotton No.2 Agriculture ICE Buy +24.49 +9.27 -0.76 +14.29 58.40 N Y 5 Lean Hogs Livestock CME Buy +24.48 +10.68 +0.52 +6.42 58.10 Y Y 6 Sugar No.11 Agriculture ICE Buy +18.81 +10.18 +0.07 -6.25 58.80 Y N 7 Wheat Agriculture CBOT Buy +17.90 +2.01 -7.36 +0.17 56.00 N Y 8 Feeder Cattle Livestock CME Buy +15.90 +16.49 +5.79 +3.14 69.70 Y Y 9 Soybean Oil Agriculture CBOT Neutral +15.55 -0.73 -9.84 +2.23 26.90 N Y 10 Soybeans Agriculture CBOT Buy +15.50 +7.23 -2.61 -0.73 64.30 N Y
📈 Outperforming Gold (RS55 Leaders)
Rank Ticker Category RS(55) RS(22) 1M 3M Signal 1 Cocoa Agriculture +85.68 +34.88 +22.50 +60.60 Buy 2 Natural Gas Energy +39.88 +24.75 +13.30 +13.42 Buy 3 Copper Industrial Metals +24.86 +7.12 -2.71 +13.77 Buy 4 Cotton No.2 Agriculture +24.49 +9.27 -0.76 +14.29 Buy 5 Lean Hogs Livestock +24.48 +10.68 +0.52 +6.42 Buy 6 Sugar No.11 Agriculture +18.81 +10.18 +0.07 -6.25 Buy 7 Wheat Agriculture +17.90 +2.01 -7.36 +0.17 Buy 8 Feeder Cattle Livestock +15.90 +16.49 +5.79 +3.14 Buy 9 Soybean Oil Agriculture +15.55 -0.73 -9.84 +2.23 Neutral 10 Soybeans Agriculture +15.50 +7.23 -2.61 -0.73 Buy
📉 Underperforming Gold (RS55 Laggards)
Rank Ticker Category RS(55) RS(22) 1M 3M Signal 23 Orange Juice Agriculture -15.81 -7.61 -16.09 -8.24 Sell 22 WTI Crude Oil Energy -14.75 -18.78 -26.23 -21.41 Sell 21 Palladium Precious Metals -11.03 -3.46 -12.33 -13.91 Sell 20 Brent Crude Oil Energy -10.93 -19.69 -27.06 -27.33 Sell 19 Silver Precious Metals -8.09 -14.14 -22.02 -13.83 Sell 18 Platinum Precious Metals -6.88 -6.84 -15.39 -11.66 Sell 17 Heating Oil Energy -5.31 -8.01 -16.46 -23.49 Sell 16 Gold Precious Metals 0.00 0.00 -9.18 -7.19 Neutral 15 Coffee Agriculture +8.26 +10.09 -0.02 -10.77 Buy 14 Corn Agriculture +9.25 +1.20 -8.09 -8.49 Buy
📊 By Category
🥇 Precious Metals
🛢️ Energy
Rank Ticker Exch Signal RS(55) RS(22) 1M 3M RSI >SMA50 >SMA200 1 Natural Gas NYMEX Buy +39.88 +24.75 +13.30 +13.42 52.60 Y N 2 RBOB Gasoline NYMEX Neutral +9.29 -3.35 -12.22 -4.97 38.70 N Y 3 Heating Oil NYMEX Sell -5.31 -8.01 -16.46 -23.49 28.20 N Y 4 Brent Crude Oil ICE Sell -10.93 -19.69 -27.06 -27.33 16.90 N N 5 WTI Crude Oil NYMEX Sell -14.75 -18.78 -26.23 -21.41 15.80 N N
🔶 Industrial Metals
🌾 Agriculture
Rank Ticker Exch Signal RS(55) RS(22) 1M 3M RSI >SMA50 >SMA200 1 Cocoa ICE Buy +85.68 +34.88 +22.50 +60.60 89.70 Y Y 2 Cotton No.2 ICE Buy +24.49 +9.27 -0.76 +14.29 58.40 N Y 3 Sugar No.11 ICE Buy +18.81 +10.18 +0.07 -6.25 58.80 Y N 4 Wheat CBOT Buy +17.90 +2.01 -7.36 +0.17 56.00 N Y 5 Soybean Oil CBOT Neutral +15.55 -0.73 -9.84 +2.23 26.90 N Y 6 Soybeans CBOT Buy +15.50 +7.23 -2.61 -0.73 64.30 N Y 7 Soybean Meal CBOT Buy +12.58 +1.96 -7.40 -6.83 42.90 N N 8 Corn CBOT Buy +9.25 +1.20 -8.09 -8.49 53.00 N N 9 Coffee ICE Buy +8.26 +10.09 -0.02 -10.77 69.00 N N 10 Orange Juice ICE Sell -15.81 -7.61 -16.09 -8.24 43.60 N N
🐄 Livestock
Rank Ticker Exch Signal RS(55) RS(22) 1M 3M RSI >SMA50 >SMA200 1 Lean Hogs CME Buy +24.48 +10.68 +0.52 +6.42 58.10 Y Y 2 Feeder Cattle CME Buy +15.90 +16.49 +5.79 +3.14 69.70 Y Y 3 Live Cattle CME Buy +14.84 +9.15 -0.87 +4.58 43.80 N Y
📋 All Commodities
Rank Ticker Category Exch Signal RS(55) RS(22) 1M 3M RSI >SMA50 >SMA200 1 Cocoa Agriculture ICE Buy +85.68 +34.88 +22.50 +60.60 89.70 Y Y 2 Natural Gas Energy NYMEX Buy +39.88 +24.75 +13.30 +13.42 52.60 Y N 3 Copper Industrial Metals COMEX Buy +24.86 +7.12 -2.71 +13.77 46.80 N Y 4 Cotton No.2 Agriculture ICE Buy +24.49 +9.27 -0.76 +14.29 58.40 N Y 5 Lean Hogs Livestock CME Buy +24.48 +10.68 +0.52 +6.42 58.10 Y Y 6 Sugar No.11 Agriculture ICE Buy +18.81 +10.18 +0.07 -6.25 58.80 Y N 7 Wheat Agriculture CBOT Buy +17.90 +2.01 -7.36 +0.17 56.00 N Y 8 Feeder Cattle Livestock CME Buy +15.90 +16.49 +5.79 +3.14 69.70 Y Y 9 Soybean Oil Agriculture CBOT Neutral +15.55 -0.73 -9.84 +2.23 26.90 N Y 10 Soybeans Agriculture CBOT Buy +15.50 +7.23 -2.61 -0.73 64.30 N Y 11 Live Cattle Livestock CME Buy +14.84 +9.15 -0.87 +4.58 43.80 N Y 12 Soybean Meal Agriculture CBOT Buy +12.58 +1.96 -7.40 -6.83 42.90 N N 13 RBOB Gasoline Energy NYMEX Neutral +9.29 -3.35 -12.22 -4.97 38.70 N Y 14 Corn Agriculture CBOT Buy +9.25 +1.20 -8.09 -8.49 53.00 N N 15 Coffee Agriculture ICE Buy +8.26 +10.09 -0.02 -10.77 69.00 N N 16 Gold Precious Metals COMEX Neutral 0.00 0.00 -9.18 -7.19 37.30 N N 17 Heating Oil Energy NYMEX Sell -5.31 -8.01 -16.46 -23.49 28.20 N Y 18 Platinum Precious Metals NYMEX Sell -6.88 -6.84 -15.39 -11.66 37.00 N N 19 Silver Precious Metals COMEX Sell -8.09 -14.14 -22.02 -13.83 32.00 N N 20 Brent Crude Oil Energy ICE Sell -10.93 -19.69 -27.06 -27.33 16.90 N N 21 Palladium Precious Metals NYMEX Sell -11.03 -3.46 -12.33 -13.91 46.40 N N 22 WTI Crude Oil Energy NYMEX Sell -14.75 -18.78 -26.23 -21.41 15.80 N N 23 Orange Juice Agriculture ICE Sell -15.81 -7.61 -16.09 -8.24 43.60 N N
Commodity ETFs ranked by RS vs GLD (Gold ETF) benchmark.
Period
1M
3M
6M
12M
Hide Chart
Gold ✓
Heating Oil ✓
Natural Gas ✓
Copper ✓
Gasoline ✓
Steel ✓
Metals Broad ✓
Soybeans ✓
Agriculture Broad ✓
Wheat ✓
Sugar ✓
Lithium ✓
Lumber ✓
Iron Ore ✓
Coal/Mining ✓
Corn ✓
Coffee ✓
Broad Commodities ✓
Rare Earth ✓
Energy Broad ✓
Uranium ✓
Crude Oil WTI ✓
Crude Oil Brent ✓
Platinum ✓
Silver ✓
Palladium ✓
🥇 Precious Metals
🛢️ Energy
🔶 Base Metals
📦 Broad
🌾 Agriculture
ETF Signal RS(55) RS(22) RS(120) 1M 3M 6M 12M 1D RSI >SMA50 >SMA200 Soybeans Soybeans Buy +17.14 +9.15 +19.87 -1.45 +1.49 +9.21 +13.76 -0.04 61.90 ✗ ✓ Wheat Wheat Buy +15.79 +1.35 +18.07 -8.48 -2.27 +9.46 -1.71 -1.75 47.90 ✗ ✓ Sugar Sugar Buy +15.34 +8.77 +7.04 -1.79 -7.89 -0.77 -12.97 +3.05 49.40 ✗ ✗ Lumber Lumber Buy +13.03 +14.90 +2.34 +3.75 +1.15 -0.86 -2.82 -0.39 61.30 ✓ ✗ Corn Corn Buy +9.03 +2.80 +1.98 -7.18 -8.83 -4.66 -4.12 -0.44 44.90 ✗ ✗ Coffee Coffee Buy +8.29 +10.73 -18.31 -0.02 -10.77 -29.34 -11.49 -5.14 69.00 ✗ ✗
🧭 5-Checkpoint Regime Scorecard
Run this every morning. 4/5 majority = regime confirmed. Today: 🟡 STAGFLATION
Checkpoint Goldilocks Stagflation Recession Recovery Today
1. 10Y Yield Rising slowly Rising fast Falling sharply Rising from trough 0.45% 2. VIX Level <15 15–20 >30 15–20 falling 18.9 — Caution ⚠️ 3. DXY Weekly Ranging/mild Rising Surging Falling 101.43 4. 2s10s Spread +0.5% to +2% Flat/inverting Inverted Steepening +0.08% (Normal) 5. Global PMI >52 rising 50–53 high CPI <48 falling Crossing 50 ↑ Manual check
💼 Portfolio Allocation by Regime
Regime Equities Bonds Gold Oil/Commod. Cash
🟢 Goldilocks 70–80% 5–10% Underweight 5–10% 5% 🟡 Stagflation 30–40% Short (TBT) Small only 20–30% (XLE) 10–15% 🔴 Recession 15–20% 40–50% (TLT) 10–15% Underweight 15–20% 🔵 Recovery 50–60% 5–10% Neutral 15–20% 10%
📡 Key FRED Data Sources
Data Point FRED Code What it Tells You
Real Yield (TIPS 10Y) DFII10 #1 gold driver — inverse. Below 0% = very bullish gold. 10Y Treasury Yield DGS10 Master rate for all assets. 2s10s Spread T10Y2Y Recession predictor — inverted = warning 6–18 months ahead. Inflation Breakeven 10Y T10YIE Market's inflation expectation. 5Y5Y Forward Breakeven T5YIFR Long-term inflation expectations — Fed watches this. HY Credit Spreads BAMLH0A0HYM2 Credit stress early warning — 2–6 week lead on equities.
📊 Key Weekly Calendar — Commodity Movers
Day Time (EST) Event Impacts
Monday — Weekend gap analysis; China data releases All commodities Tuesday 4:30 PM API Weekly Crude Stock Report 🛢️ WTI/Brent (overnight preview) Wednesday 10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Status Report 🛢️ WTI/Brent (main inventory report) Wednesday 10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Storage 🔥 Natural Gas Thursday 8:30 AM US Jobless Claims All (economy health proxy) Friday 1:00 PM Baker Hughes US Rig Count 🛢️ WTI (future supply signal) Friday 3:30 PM CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) 🥇 Gold, 🛢️ Oil (positioning) 1st of month — Caixin China Manufacturing PMI 🔶 Copper, 🛢️ Oil (demand signal) 1st Fri 8:30 AM US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) All (DXY reaction) ~10th — OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) 🛢️ WTI/Brent (supply forecast) ~12th 8:30 AM US CPI Report 🥇 Gold (inflation vs real yields) ~15th — IEA Oil Market Report 🛢️ Oil (demand/supply forecast)
Performance Bar Chart
Period
1M
3M
6M
12M
Hide Chart
Cocoa ✓
Natural Gas ✓
Copper ✓
Cotton No.2 ✓
Lean Hogs ✓
Sugar No.11 ✓
Wheat ✓
Feeder Cattle ✓
Soybean Oil ✓
Soybeans ✓
Live Cattle ✓
Soybean Meal ✓
RBOB Gasoline ✓
Corn ✓
Coffee ✓
Gold ✓
Heating Oil ✓
Platinum ✓
Silver ✓
Brent Crude Oil ✓
Palladium ✓
WTI Crude Oil ✓
Orange Juice ✓
Commodities — Cumulative Return vs Start (weekly, 1Y)
Relative Rotation Graph — Commodities vs Gold
RS-Ratio (x) vs RS-Momentum (y), cross-sectional z-score normalised to 100.
Quadrants: Leading ·
Weakening ·
Lagging ·
Improving
📊 Live TradingView Charts