⚡ The 4 Master Signals
Check these four signals every morning before any trade decision.
DXY — US Dollar Index
100.86
-0.52% ↓
Master signal for all commodities. DXY falling = tailwind for Gold, Oil & EM.
VIX — Fear Index
16.1
Caution ⚠️
<15 calm. 15–20 caution. >25 reduce size. >35 crisis.
10Y Treasury Yield
0.45%
Check FRED: DGS10
Rising = tight money → pressure on Gold & equities.
2s10s Spread
+0.08% (Normal)
Recession predictor
Inverted = recession risk. Re-steepening from inversion → Recovery starts.
🧭 Current Market Regime
🟡 STAGFLATION
VIX: 16.1
| 10Y: 0.45%
| DXY: 100.86
| 2s10s: +0.08% (Normal)
📦 Commodity Snapshot
Role
Safe haven + Industrial
Dual role: safe haven + industrial. G:S above 80x = silver cheap vs gold.
📊 TradingView Chart →
🔗 Intermarket Relationships
If This Happens Gold Crude Oil Silver Copper DXY rises strongly Headwind ↓ Headwind ↓ Headwind ↓ Pressure ↓ Real yields rise Strong sell ↓↓ Neutral Headwind ↓ Neutral VIX spikes >30 Rally ↑ (safe haven) Falls ↓ (demand fear) Mixed Falls ↓ China PMI >52 Neutral Rally ↑ Rally ↑ Strong ↑↑ OPEC cuts 1mb/d Neutral Spike ↑↑ Neutral Neutral Fed cuts rates Very Bullish ↑↑ Positive ↑ Strong ↑↑ Rally ↑ US CPI surprises high Mixed (rate fear) Positive ↑ Mixed Neutral Geopolitical crisis Spike ↑↑ (temp.) Spike ↑↑ (temp.) Rally ↑ Falls ↓
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD) — Live: $4,187 +1.81%
📊 5 Key Drivers
Rank Driver Direction for Gold How to Track
1 Real Interest Rates (TIPS) Rising = Headwind ↓ FRED: DFII10 2 US Dollar (DXY) DXY 100.86 — Tailwind ↑ DXY weekly chart 3 Inflation Expectations Neutral (2–3%) FRED: T5YIFR, T10YIE 4 Geopolitical Risk Support ↑ (temporary) News flow — always use trailing stop 5 Central Bank Buying Record pace since 2022 ↑↑ World Gold Council monthly
📐 Core Formula: Real Yield = 10Y − Inflation Expectation
Real yields FALLING → Gold RISES | Real yields RISING → Gold FALLS
📌 2020: QE drove real yields to −1% → Gold surged $1,500→$2,075 (+38%)Lesson: Driver 1 (real yields) ALWAYS beats Driver 3 (inflation). Never buy gold on CPI prints alone.
🔄 Gold in the 4 Market Regimes
Regime Gold Bias Why Trade Approach
🟢 Goldilocks Neutral / Slight Bearish Real yields rising; equities outperform Underweight. No strong position. 🟡 Stagflation Mixed ⚠️ Inflation supports but rate hikes headwind Small entries on deep pullbacks only 🔴 Recession Bullish ↑ Real yields fall as Fed cuts; safe haven bid Core long. Buy dips. Trail stop. ⚡ Crisis Very Bullish ↑↑ Ultimate safe haven; CB liquidity rush Strong long. Options for asymmetric upside.
✅ 6-Step Gold Entry Framework
1
Are real yields (TIPS) falling? AND is DXY in a weekly downtrend? Both must align.
2
Identify the regime. Recession or Crisis = core long. Goldilocks = avoid. Stagflation = small size.
3
Clean technical setup? Close above resistance, or pullback to 50-day EMA. Confirm on two timeframes.
4
Enter on daily close. Never chase a mid-session spike.
5
Stop loss below the most recent structural swing low. Typical: 1.5–3% below entry.
6
Target at prior resistance. Minimum R:R = 2:1. If math doesn't work → skip.
🎯 Key Technical Levels
Level Significance Watch For
$3,500+ 2024–25 Extension Zone Take profits, trail stop $3,000 Major psychological level Key support on pullback $2,500 2024 early ATH Deeper pullback support $2,070–2,080 2020 COVID high → now support Strong support zone $1,920 2011 ATH — decades of resistance Long-term floor
📋 Gold Fundamental Tracker — What to Watch Daily & Weekly
These are the data points that move gold. Check them on schedule to stay ahead of the market.
🏦 Central Bank Actions Event-driven
Fed Rate Decision (FOMC)
8× per year
Rate cut = Very Bullish ↑↑
ECB Rate Decision
6× per year
Easing = Bullish ↑
BOJ Policy Meeting
8× per year
Yield curve control shift = ↑↑
RBI Policy (India gold demand)
6× per year
Rate cut = demand ↑
PBOC Gold Reserves
Monthly disclosure
Buying = structural floor ↑
Fed Minutes / Dot Plot
8× per year
Dovish surprise = ↑
📊 Real Yields & Inflation Daily / Weekly
TIPS 10Y Real Yield (DFII10)
FRED — daily
Falling = Bullish ↑↑ (Driver #1)
10Y Treasury Yield (DGS10)
FRED — daily
Direction matters > level
US CPI (headline + core)
Monthly (BLS)
High CPI but yields flat = ↑
PCE Price Index
Monthly (BEA)
Fed's preferred measure
5Y5Y Breakeven (T5YIFR)
FRED — daily
Rising = inflation fear = mixed
University of Michigan Inflation Exp.
Monthly
Consumer expectations rising = ↑
💵 US Dollar & FX Daily
DXY (Dollar Index)
TradingView — daily
Falling = Tailwind ↑ (Driver #2)
EUR/USD
FX — daily
EUR rising = DXY falling = gold ↑
USD/JPY
FX — daily
Yen strengthening = risk-off = gold ↑
USD/CNY
FX — daily
Yuan devaluation = China gold buying ↑
USD/INR
FX — daily
Weak INR = higher domestic gold price
🌍 Geopolitical & Country Decisions Event-driven
US Sanctions (Russia/Iran/China)
News
Sanctions = de-dollarization = ↑↑
Middle East Tensions
News
War premium = temporary spike ↑
China-Taiwan Tensions
News
Risk-off bid = ↑↑
BRICS De-dollarization Moves
Summit events
Alternative reserve = structural ↑
US Debt Ceiling / Shutdown
Congress
US credit risk = safe haven ↑
Trade War / Tariffs
News
Uncertainty = ↑ (but DXY matters more)
📦 Physical Demand & Supply Weekly / Monthly
Gold ETF Holdings (GLD/IAU tonnes)
World Gold Council
Inflows = bullish ↑
COMEX Gold Inventories
CME — daily
Drawdown = physical demand ↑
Shanghai Gold Premium/Discount
SGE — daily
Premium = China demand ↑
India Gold Imports
Monthly (govt)
Festival season = demand ↑
Central Bank Net Purchases
WGC quarterly
Record buying since 2022 = floor ↑
Mine Production (global)
WGC quarterly
Supply constrained = ↑
Recycled Gold Supply
WGC quarterly
High recycling = price ceiling
📈 Positioning & Sentiment Weekly
CFTC COT Report (Gold Futures)
Fri 3:30 PM EST
Net long extreme = caution ⚠️
Gold ETF Fund Flows
Daily (Bloomberg)
Consistent inflows = ↑
Gold:Silver Ratio
Daily
Current: 66.7x — above 80 = silver cheap
Gold vs S&P 500 Ratio
Daily
Rising = risk-off regime
Gold Miners (GDX) vs Gold
Daily
GDX leading = bullish confirmation
📊 Gold — TradingView Chart
🛢️ WTI Crude Oil — Live: $68.78 +0.13% | Brent: $72.13
📊 5 Key Drivers
Rank Driver Direction for Oil Data Source
1 OPEC+ Production Policy Cuts Active → Bullish ↑ OPEC MOMR (~10th of month) 2 US Shale Output Stable → Neutral Baker Hughes Rig Count (Fri 1PM EST) 3 China Demand Caixin PMI Watch → Headwind risk Caixin Mfg PMI (1st of month) 4 US Dollar (DXY) DXY 100.86 — Tailwind ↑ DXY weekly chart 5 Geopolitical Risk Premium ↑ (temporary) News — always use trailing stop
📅 EIA Inventory Trading Setup — Every Wednesday 10:30 AM EST
Scenario Signal Trade Setup
Crude Draw >3 million barrels Bullish Buy breakout above pre-report 15-min high Crude Build >3 million barrels Bearish Sell breakdown below pre-report low Within expected range (±2M) Neutral Fade the initial spike/drop Gasoline draw + crude draw Very Bullish Strong momentum buy with wide stop SPR release announced Bearish override Ignore inventory draw; sell
🔄 Crude Oil in the 4 Regimes
Regime Oil Bias Why Approach
🟢 Goldilocks Neutral / Modest + Growth supports demand; supply balanced Range trade: buy support, sell resistance 🟡 Stagflation BULLISH — Best Regime ↑↑ Hot economy + constrained supply Max overweight; long XLE energy stocks 🔴 Recession Bearish ↓ Demand destruction as economy slows Underweight; short on bounces ⚡ Supply Shock Spike then Reversal ⚠️ Supply disruption premium fades eventually Trail stop aggressively; NEVER chase
🎯 Key WTI Price Levels
Level Significance Action
$100+ Demand destruction zone Reduce longs; watch for reversal $85–90 OPEC tends to ease cuts here Take profits; trail stop tightly $65–70 OPEC defense zone Build long positions $45–55 US Shale breakeven — structural floor Strong buy zone; shale shuts in
📋 Crude Oil Fundamental Tracker — What to Watch Daily & Weekly
Oil is driven by supply/demand balance, OPEC decisions, and inventory data. Track these on schedule.
📦 Inventory & Storage Weekly
EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Wed 10:30 AM EST
Draw = Bullish ↑, Build = Bearish ↓
EIA Gasoline Inventories
Wed 10:30 AM EST
Draw = demand strong ↑
EIA Distillate Inventories
Wed 10:30 AM EST
Draw = industrial demand ↑
API Weekly Crude Stock
Tue 4:30 PM EST
API preview — often moves overnight
Cushing Oklahoma Hub Stocks
EIA — weekly
Low Cushing = WTI contango collapse ↑
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
EIA — monthly
SPR release = bearish override
Floating Storage (tankers)
Vortexa/Kpler
Rising = oversupply signal ↓
⛽ Supply & Production Weekly / Monthly
OPEC+ Production Quotas
OPEC MOMR (~10th)
Cuts = Bullish ↑↑ (Driver #1)
OPEC+ Compliance Rate
OPEC MOMR
High compliance = effective cuts ↑
US Crude Oil Production
EIA weekly
Rising = supply pressure ↓
Baker Hughes US Rig Count
Fri 1 PM EST
Rising rigs = future supply ↑ → bearish
Russia Seaborne Exports
Kpler/tanker trackers
Sanctions effectiveness check
Iran/Venezuela Output
Secondary sources
Sanctions relief = supply ↑ → bearish
Canadian Oil Sands Output
Monthly
TMX pipeline expansion = supply ↑
📈 Demand Indicators Monthly
China Crude Imports
China Customs (monthly)
Rising = global demand ↑↑
India Crude Imports
PPAC (monthly)
Rising = demand growth ↑
Caixin China Mfg PMI
1st of month
>52 = strong demand ↑
US Gasoline Demand (EIA)
Weekly
Summer driving season peak = ↑
Global Refinery Utilization
IEA monthly
High runs = strong demand ↑
Jet Fuel Demand (IATA)
Monthly
Air travel recovery = ↑
EV Adoption Rate
Quarterly reports
Long-term demand destruction risk ↓
🏦 Central Bank & Macro Event-driven
Fed Rate Decision
8× per year
Rate cut = weaker DXY = oil ↑
US GDP Growth
Quarterly (BEA)
Strong growth = demand ↑
US Jobs Report (NFP)
1st Fri of month
Strong jobs = demand ↑ but Fed hawkish
China Stimulus Announcements
PBOC/State Council
Stimulus = demand ↑↑
Saudi Aramco OSP Changes
Monthly
Price hike = confident demand outlook
🌍 Geopolitical & Country Decisions Event-driven
Middle East Tensions (Strait of Hormuz)
News
Shipping disruption = spike ↑↑
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
News
Sanctions/supply disruption = ↑
US Sanctions (Iran/Venezuela/Russia)
News
New sanctions = supply cut = ↑
Libya Production Disruptions
News
Frequent shutdowns = ↑ temporary
Nigeria/MENA Political Instability
News
Supply risk premium ↑
US-China Trade Relations
News
Trade war = demand fear ↓
OPEC+ Emergency Meetings
News
Surprise cuts = sharp ↑↑
📊 Positioning & Technicals Weekly
CFTC COT Report (WTI Futures)
Fri 3:30 PM EST
Net long extreme = reversal risk ⚠️
WTI-Brent Spread
Daily
Spread >$5 = US supply glut signal
Crude Oil Volatility (OVX)
Daily
OVX spike = trade smaller ⚠️
Contango vs Backwardation
Daily (futures curve)
Backwardation = bullish ↑
Crack Spread (3-2-1)
Daily
Widening = refiner demand ↑
Energy ETF Flows (XLE/USO)
Weekly
Inflows = bullish sentiment ↑
📊 Crude Oil — TradingView Charts
Key intermarket framework:
DXY ↑ → Commodities ↓ (inverse) |
Real Yields ↑ → Gold ↓ (FRED: DFII10) |
China PMI ↑ → Copper & Oil ↑ |
VIX ↑ → Gold ↑, Oil ↓ |
RS > 0 = outperforming Gold over that period.
🏆 Top 10 — Strongest RS vs Gold (55d)
Rank Ticker Category Exch Signal RS(55) RS(22) 1M 3M RSI >SMA50 >SMA200 1 Cocoa Agriculture ICE Buy +68.97 +43.12 +31.53 +61.86 86.40 Y Y 2 Natural Gas Energy NYMEX Buy +42.52 +9.85 +2.46 +12.40 56.20 Y N 3 Lean Hogs Livestock CME Buy +27.82 +12.91 +3.76 +8.62 67.40 Y Y 4 Sugar No.11 Agriculture ICE Buy +25.18 +11.53 +2.49 -6.03 69.60 Y Y 5 Cotton No.2 Agriculture ICE Buy +22.34 +10.06 +1.15 +11.60 63.90 Y Y 6 Wheat Agriculture CBOT Buy +18.95 +7.29 -1.40 -0.79 55.90 N Y 7 Copper Industrial Metals COMEX Buy +17.50 +0.35 -6.40 +13.66 40.90 N Y 8 Corn Agriculture CBOT Buy +16.72 +8.02 -0.73 -4.60 66.90 N Y 9 Soybeans Agriculture CBOT Buy +16.18 +5.68 -2.88 -1.08 63.10 N Y 10 Soybean Oil Agriculture CBOT Neutral +15.77 -9.80 -17.11 -2.74 22.60 N Y
📈 Outperforming Gold (RS55 Leaders)
Rank Ticker Category RS(55) RS(22) 1M 3M Signal 1 Cocoa Agriculture +68.97 +43.12 +31.53 +61.86 Buy 2 Natural Gas Energy +42.52 +9.85 +2.46 +12.40 Buy 3 Lean Hogs Livestock +27.82 +12.91 +3.76 +8.62 Buy 4 Sugar No.11 Agriculture +25.18 +11.53 +2.49 -6.03 Buy 5 Cotton No.2 Agriculture +22.34 +10.06 +1.15 +11.60 Buy 6 Wheat Agriculture +18.95 +7.29 -1.40 -0.79 Buy 7 Copper Industrial Metals +17.50 +0.35 -6.40 +13.66 Buy 8 Corn Agriculture +16.72 +8.02 -0.73 -4.60 Buy 9 Soybeans Agriculture +16.18 +5.68 -2.88 -1.08 Buy 10 Soybean Oil Agriculture +15.77 -9.80 -17.11 -2.74 Neutral
📉 Underperforming Gold (RS55 Laggards)
Rank Ticker Category RS(55) RS(22) 1M 3M Signal 23 WTI Crude Oil Energy -13.63 -21.36 -26.64 -33.15 Sell 22 Brent Crude Oil Energy -12.90 -19.45 -24.86 -36.04 Sell 21 Platinum Precious Metals -10.38 -8.59 -14.74 -12.39 Sell 20 Silver Precious Metals -9.42 -10.58 -16.59 -10.68 Sell 19 Palladium Precious Metals -7.57 -0.65 -7.33 -10.26 Sell 18 Heating Oil Energy -0.54 -5.61 -11.95 -25.38 Sell 17 Gold Precious Metals 0.00 0.00 -6.72 -7.48 Neutral 16 RBOB Gasoline Energy +3.61 -5.42 -11.78 -17.23 Neutral 15 Orange Juice Agriculture +4.03 +23.83 +13.80 -3.31 Buy 14 Soybean Meal Agriculture +8.32 +1.45 -6.77 -3.46 Buy
📊 By Category
🥇 Precious Metals
🛢️ Energy
Rank Ticker Exch Signal RS(55) RS(22) 1M 3M RSI >SMA50 >SMA200 1 Natural Gas NYMEX Buy +42.52 +9.85 +2.46 +12.40 56.20 Y N 2 RBOB Gasoline NYMEX Neutral +3.61 -5.42 -11.78 -17.23 36.30 N Y 3 Heating Oil NYMEX Sell -0.54 -5.61 -11.95 -25.38 42.60 N Y 4 Brent Crude Oil ICE Sell -12.90 -19.45 -24.86 -36.04 17.60 N N 5 WTI Crude Oil NYMEX Sell -13.63 -21.36 -26.64 -33.15 16.70 N N
🔶 Industrial Metals
🌾 Agriculture
Rank Ticker Exch Signal RS(55) RS(22) 1M 3M RSI >SMA50 >SMA200 1 Cocoa ICE Buy +68.97 +43.12 +31.53 +61.86 86.40 Y Y 2 Sugar No.11 ICE Buy +25.18 +11.53 +2.49 -6.03 69.60 Y Y 3 Cotton No.2 ICE Buy +22.34 +10.06 +1.15 +11.60 63.90 Y Y 4 Wheat CBOT Buy +18.95 +7.29 -1.40 -0.79 55.90 N Y 5 Corn CBOT Buy +16.72 +8.02 -0.73 -4.60 66.90 N Y 6 Soybeans CBOT Buy +16.18 +5.68 -2.88 -1.08 63.10 N Y 7 Soybean Oil CBOT Neutral +15.77 -9.80 -17.11 -2.74 22.60 N Y 8 Coffee ICE Buy +11.43 +20.03 +10.30 -4.72 63.70 Y N 9 Soybean Meal CBOT Buy +8.32 +1.45 -6.77 -3.46 55.40 N N 10 Orange Juice ICE Buy +4.03 +23.83 +13.80 -3.31 52.50 Y N
🐄 Livestock
Rank Ticker Exch Signal RS(55) RS(22) 1M 3M RSI >SMA50 >SMA200 1 Lean Hogs CME Buy +27.82 +12.91 +3.76 +8.62 67.40 Y Y 2 Feeder Cattle CME Buy +12.61 +11.68 +2.63 -0.18 51.60 N Y 3 Live Cattle CME Buy +11.04 +4.46 -4.01 +0.22 30.80 N Y
📋 All Commodities
Rank Ticker Category Exch Signal RS(55) RS(22) 1M 3M RSI >SMA50 >SMA200 1 Cocoa Agriculture ICE Buy +68.97 +43.12 +31.53 +61.86 86.40 Y Y 2 Natural Gas Energy NYMEX Buy +42.52 +9.85 +2.46 +12.40 56.20 Y N 3 Lean Hogs Livestock CME Buy +27.82 +12.91 +3.76 +8.62 67.40 Y Y 4 Sugar No.11 Agriculture ICE Buy +25.18 +11.53 +2.49 -6.03 69.60 Y Y 5 Cotton No.2 Agriculture ICE Buy +22.34 +10.06 +1.15 +11.60 63.90 Y Y 6 Wheat Agriculture CBOT Buy +18.95 +7.29 -1.40 -0.79 55.90 N Y 7 Copper Industrial Metals COMEX Buy +17.50 +0.35 -6.40 +13.66 40.90 N Y 8 Corn Agriculture CBOT Buy +16.72 +8.02 -0.73 -4.60 66.90 N Y 9 Soybeans Agriculture CBOT Buy +16.18 +5.68 -2.88 -1.08 63.10 N Y 10 Soybean Oil Agriculture CBOT Neutral +15.77 -9.80 -17.11 -2.74 22.60 N Y 11 Feeder Cattle Livestock CME Buy +12.61 +11.68 +2.63 -0.18 51.60 N Y 12 Coffee Agriculture ICE Buy +11.43 +20.03 +10.30 -4.72 63.70 Y N 13 Live Cattle Livestock CME Buy +11.04 +4.46 -4.01 +0.22 30.80 N Y 14 Soybean Meal Agriculture CBOT Buy +8.32 +1.45 -6.77 -3.46 55.40 N N 15 Orange Juice Agriculture ICE Buy +4.03 +23.83 +13.80 -3.31 52.50 Y N 16 RBOB Gasoline Energy NYMEX Neutral +3.61 -5.42 -11.78 -17.23 36.30 N Y 17 Gold Precious Metals COMEX Neutral 0.00 0.00 -6.72 -7.48 48.30 N N 18 Heating Oil Energy NYMEX Sell -0.54 -5.61 -11.95 -25.38 42.60 N Y 19 Palladium Precious Metals NYMEX Sell -7.57 -0.65 -7.33 -10.26 49.50 N N 20 Silver Precious Metals COMEX Sell -9.42 -10.58 -16.59 -10.68 38.90 N N 21 Platinum Precious Metals NYMEX Sell -10.38 -8.59 -14.74 -12.39 44.90 N N 22 Brent Crude Oil Energy ICE Sell -12.90 -19.45 -24.86 -36.04 17.60 N N 23 WTI Crude Oil Energy NYMEX Sell -13.63 -21.36 -26.64 -33.15 16.70 N N
Commodity ETFs ranked by RS vs GLD (Gold ETF) benchmark.
Period
1M
3M
6M
12M
Hide Chart
Gold ✓
Heating Oil ✓
Natural Gas ✓
Gasoline ✓
Sugar ✓
Soybeans ✓
Copper ✓
Wheat ✓
Agriculture Broad ✓
Steel ✓
Lumber ✓
Metals Broad ✓
Lithium ✓
Coffee ✓
Corn ✓
Coal/Mining ✓
Iron Ore ✓
Broad Commodities ✓
Energy Broad ✓
Rare Earth ✓
Crude Oil WTI ✓
Crude Oil Brent ✓
Uranium ✓
Palladium ✓
Platinum ✓
Silver ✓
🥇 Precious Metals
🛢️ Energy
🌾 Agriculture
ETF Signal RS(55) RS(22) RS(120) 1M 3M 6M 12M 1D RSI >SMA50 >SMA200 Sugar Sugar Buy +21.57 +8.87 +9.49 +0.10 -8.00 +1.56 -8.61 -0.81 62.20 ✓ ✓ Soybeans Soybeans Buy +18.78 +5.73 +20.02 -2.78 +1.03 +11.04 +12.16 -0.33 58.00 ✗ ✓ Wheat Wheat Buy +16.67 +4.56 +19.72 -3.86 -3.28 +12.16 -1.06 +0.04 49.70 ✗ ✓ Lumber Lumber Buy +14.15 +12.38 +3.51 +3.33 +1.04 -0.89 -5.85 +1.62 60.30 ✓ ✗ Coffee Coffee Buy +11.80 +19.97 -15.99 +10.30 -4.72 -15.62 -3.52 -11.36 63.70 ✓ ✗ Corn Corn Buy +11.74 +2.44 +2.21 -5.81 -9.26 -5.23 -4.10 -0.53 53.00 ✗ ✗
🔶 Base Metals
📦 Broad
🧭 5-Checkpoint Regime Scorecard
Run this every morning. 4/5 majority = regime confirmed. Today: 🟡 STAGFLATION
Checkpoint Goldilocks Stagflation Recession Recovery Today
1. 10Y Yield Rising slowly Rising fast Falling sharply Rising from trough 0.45% 2. VIX Level <15 15–20 >30 15–20 falling 16.1 — Caution ⚠️ 3. DXY Weekly Ranging/mild Rising Surging Falling 100.86 4. 2s10s Spread +0.5% to +2% Flat/inverting Inverted Steepening +0.08% (Normal) 5. Global PMI >52 rising 50–53 high CPI <48 falling Crossing 50 ↑ Manual check
💼 Portfolio Allocation by Regime
Regime Equities Bonds Gold Oil/Commod. Cash
🟢 Goldilocks 70–80% 5–10% Underweight 5–10% 5% 🟡 Stagflation 30–40% Short (TBT) Small only 20–30% (XLE) 10–15% 🔴 Recession 15–20% 40–50% (TLT) 10–15% Underweight 15–20% 🔵 Recovery 50–60% 5–10% Neutral 15–20% 10%
📡 Key FRED Data Sources
Data Point FRED Code What it Tells You
Real Yield (TIPS 10Y) DFII10 #1 gold driver — inverse. Below 0% = very bullish gold. 10Y Treasury Yield DGS10 Master rate for all assets. 2s10s Spread T10Y2Y Recession predictor — inverted = warning 6–18 months ahead. Inflation Breakeven 10Y T10YIE Market's inflation expectation. 5Y5Y Forward Breakeven T5YIFR Long-term inflation expectations — Fed watches this. HY Credit Spreads BAMLH0A0HYM2 Credit stress early warning — 2–6 week lead on equities.
📊 Key Weekly Calendar — Commodity Movers
Day Time (EST) Event Impacts
Monday — Weekend gap analysis; China data releases All commodities Tuesday 4:30 PM API Weekly Crude Stock Report 🛢️ WTI/Brent (overnight preview) Wednesday 10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Status Report 🛢️ WTI/Brent (main inventory report) Wednesday 10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Storage 🔥 Natural Gas Thursday 8:30 AM US Jobless Claims All (economy health proxy) Friday 1:00 PM Baker Hughes US Rig Count 🛢️ WTI (future supply signal) Friday 3:30 PM CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) 🥇 Gold, 🛢️ Oil (positioning) 1st of month — Caixin China Manufacturing PMI 🔶 Copper, 🛢️ Oil (demand signal) 1st Fri 8:30 AM US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) All (DXY reaction) ~10th — OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) 🛢️ WTI/Brent (supply forecast) ~12th 8:30 AM US CPI Report 🥇 Gold (inflation vs real yields) ~15th — IEA Oil Market Report 🛢️ Oil (demand/supply forecast)
Performance Bar Chart
Period
1M
3M
6M
12M
Hide Chart
Cocoa ✓
Natural Gas ✓
Lean Hogs ✓
Sugar No.11 ✓
Cotton No.2 ✓
Wheat ✓
Copper ✓
Corn ✓
Soybeans ✓
Soybean Oil ✓
Feeder Cattle ✓
Coffee ✓
Live Cattle ✓
Soybean Meal ✓
Orange Juice ✓
RBOB Gasoline ✓
Gold ✓
Heating Oil ✓
Palladium ✓
Silver ✓
Platinum ✓
Brent Crude Oil ✓
WTI Crude Oil ✓
Commodities — Cumulative Return vs Start (weekly, 1Y)
Relative Rotation Graph — Commodities vs Gold
RS-Ratio (x) vs RS-Momentum (y), cross-sectional z-score normalised to 100.
Quadrants: Leading ·
Weakening ·
Lagging ·
Improving
📊 Live TradingView Charts